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Large XRP holders accumulated more than 470 million tokens over the five-day period ending September 24. According to analytics platform Santiment, this capital inflow increased the combined holdings of millionaire wallets from 12.37 billion to 12.80 billion XRP.
In dollar terms, the volume of supply absorbed on the spot market amounted to $724 million, with orders concentrated near a key technical barrier. The logic behind these moves is clear: big money is absorbing available liquidity before the market confirms an official breakout.
This on-chain inflow effectively completed a complex reversal pattern. A dense cluster of buy orders formed the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe. The chart's measured move played out immediately: XRP staged a 27.6% rally, rising from a low of $1.25 to a local peak of $1.58.
The asset is now just a few cents away from a historic turning point, gathering strength before moving into uncharted price territory.
August déjà vu and three scenarios for the market
The current accumulation dynamics closely mirror a market precedent from a month and a half ago, creating a persistent sense of déjà vu among investors. In August, a similar wave of whale buying, totaling 460 million tokens, led to an impulsive breakout from a prolonged sideways trend. XRP gained 40.7% in one week, testing a local high of $1.70.
The similarity between the two scenarios suggests that major players are following a tested pattern for deploying capital.
The $1.60 mark remains the key trigger for the medium-term trend. It is the so-called neckline of the chart pattern and the zone with the highest concentration of historical trading volume, where billions of coins previously changed hands. Given the density of orders at this level, three scenarios are possible:
- Breakout to $2.00: A close above $1.60 would decisively break the bearish trend, activate the reversal pattern, and send the price toward its projected target of $2.00 as short positions are liquidated in a cascade.
- Technical pullback: If speculators take profits in the short term, the price could temporarily retreat to the moving average cluster around $1.34–$1.37, where buyers would face another test.
- Prolonged consolidation: External macroeconomic factors could push the asset into a prolonged distribution phase within the established $1.25–$1.50 range, weakening the pattern's momentum.
A break above $1.60 will determine XRP's direction through the end of autumn. The current $724 million absorption of supply could repeat August's pattern and send the price toward the technical target of $2.00, or the asset could return to accumulation within its current trading range.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
