Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile prediction market at 7.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Sep 28, 2026 1:12 am.
What could move the odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect the reported prediction-market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
The quoted prices present a world in which Iran is unlikely to publicly accept stockpile surrender in 2026, with somewhat more scope by December than October.
The higher later Yes price implies a timing premium rather than evidence of an agreement. Published resolution wording instead specifies a March 2026 deadline.
What could reprice it
A future UN Security Council response to the September referral is the clearest repricing category, as it could either intensify pressure or establish a diplomatic route to verified.
No specific Council meeting, vote, or negotiating deadline is supplied. The catalyst is therefore a category of official action, not a dated event.
Where the market may be weak
Settlement language names March 31, 2026—already past—while listed outcomes run through December 2026, leaving the actual tradable claim unclear.
This timing conflict matters more than reported turnover or liquidity because it prevents a reliable mapping of either quoted timing price to the stated Yes/No test.
Counter-signal
Escalating international pressure after the IAEA referral could still induce Iran to accept verified removal or dilution, overturning the market's low-probability premise.
AP reported that the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council on September 9 and that Iran held 440.9 kg enriched to 60%, making any verified concession consequential.
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
-
- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Close date
- January 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 7.5% and October 31 at 3.8%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $17.98M volume, $129.58K liquidity, and $274.04K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Sep 28, 2026, 00:12 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
The quoted prices present a world in which Iran is unlikely to publicly accept stockpile surrender in 2026, with somewhat more scope by December than October. The higher later Yes price implies a timing premium rather than evidence of an agreement. Published resolution wording instead specifies a March 2026 deadline. Catalysts to watch include UN Security Council diplomatic response, UN Security Council action, and Diplomatic response to referral.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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