We checked 6 years of bitcoin data. The NFP report isn't big price mover

It’s the first Friday of the month again and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, a key gauge closely watched by Fed policymakers and both traditional finance and crypto markets. But past data shows its a non-event for day traders.

The data due at 08:30 ET is expected to show that the economy added 56,000 jobs, a rebound from July's surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, according to FactSet. The unemployment rate, however, is seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 3% year-on-year, down from July's 3.2%, suggesting wage growth is cooling.

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen those odds, push the dollar higher, creating a headwind for bitcoin.

All this tells you how important this figure is.

Yet an analysis of bitcoin’s price action on past NFP days suggests the release doesn't immediately trigger big price swings. (check Today’s signal)

Since January 2020, bitcoin has moved an average of just 2.1% on nonfarm payrolls (NFP) days, which is consistent with BTC's average daily volatility on non-NFP days in recent years according to data tracked by CoinDesk.

Across all 79 NFP releases in that period, BTC’s intraday reaction has been remarkably split: prices closed higher on 39 of those days and lower on 40. That's a coin flip in terms of direction. (The total is 79 rather than 80 reference months because the October 2025 employment report was never published as a standalone release.)

The size of the moves, however, has varied, depending on the state of the broader market. For instance, the sharpest single-day reaction came on Feb. 4, 2022, when bitcoin jumped 11.4% following the January 2022 jobs report. Barely a month later, on March 4, 2022, the very next NFP release delivered the opposite outcome, a 7.8% drop. 2022 was a highly volatile bear market year.

The takeaway is that, for day traders, NFP has little predictive value and is a non-event, no different from any other random weekday.

Will today be any different? That possibility cannot be ruled out. Recently, Treasury yields have emerged as a focal point for all markets, including crypto. If NFP triggers a big move in Treasury yields, BTC and other markets may follow. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

• AMC CEO blasts Robinhood for stock token, putting synthetic shares in spotlight (CoinDesk): AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron lashed out at Robinhood’s tokenized version of the movie-theater chain’s shares, shining a spotlight on synthetic stocks on blockchains that track companies without their involvement.
• Shares inch higher ahead of US jobs data after Fed's Waller soothes bonds (Reuters): World shares pushed higher ahead of U.S. jobs data, while bond markets got some much-needed relief after a top Fed official cooled rate-hike expectations and dragged the dollar lower, leaving the yen ‌set for its best weekly rise since late July.
• Global benchmarks trade mixed following rally on Wall Street led by technology issues (AP): Global shares were trading mixed Friday, as market sentiment for some regional benchmarks got a boost from the tech-led rally on Wall Street. The benchmark U.S. crude edged down 55 cents to $90.75 a barrel. Brent crude fell 30 cents to $95.22 a barrel as the Iran war intensified.
• IMF confirms El Salvador’s bitcoin growth was funded by private donations, not public money (CoinDesk): El Salvador did not use public funds to accumulate bitcoin after the first review of its IMF loan program. The disclosure offers an explanation for how the country’s holdings keep growing despite the IMF’s first review calling for the BTC balance to remain unchanged.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s price performance on NFP days.

Since January 2020, the average move has been just over 2% – in line with typical volatility on non-NFP days.

If you’re a day trader expecting fireworks on NFP Fridays, good luck.