Crypto winter looms in 2026, but Cantor sees institutional growth and onchain shifts

Bitcoin BTC$84,889.01 could be heading into a prolonged downturn, according to Cantor Fitzgerald, but that is likely to be a prelude to the crypto industry entering a more stable, institutionally driven phase.

Markets are probably in the early phase of a crypto winter, echoing bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, according to a year-end report by analyst Brett Knoblauch. Bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, and Knoblauch suggests prices could remain under pressure for months, possibly even testing Strategy’s (MSTR) average breakeven price near $75,000.

Unlike past downturns, however, this one may not be defined by mass liquidations or structural failures. Institutional participants, not retail traders, are now shaping the contours of the market, according to Knoblauch, who identified a widening gap between token price performance and what’s actually happening under the hood, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets and crypto infrastructure.

Take real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. According to the report, the value of tokenized RWAs onchain — assets like credit products, U.S. Treasuries and equities — has tripled during the year to $18.5 billion. Cantor said the amount could surpass $50 billion in 2026, with the pace accelerating as more financial institutions experiment with onchain settlement.

The shift is also playing out in how crypto is traded. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which operate without intermediaries, are gaining market share from centralized venues. While trading volumes may fall in 2026 alongside bitcoin’s price, Cantor said it expects DEXs, especially those trading perpetual futures, to keep growing as infrastructure and user experience improve.

Regulatory clarity is a key piece in this evolving landscape. The recent passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY, in the U.S. marks a turning point, the report says. The law defines when a digital asset is treated as a security versus a commodity and assigns primary oversight of spot crypto markets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) once decentralization thresholds are met.

That legal framework could reduce headline risk and open the door for banks and asset managers to engage more directly with crypto markets. It also strengthens the legitimacy of decentralized protocols by offering compliance pathways, which have historically been a major barrier.

Other trends Cantor highlights include the rise of onchain prediction markets, especially in sports betting, where volumes have ballooned to over $5.9 billion, more than 50% of DraftKings’ handle in the third quarter. Firms like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN) and Gemini (GEMI) have entered the industry, introducing fairer, order book-driven alternatives to traditional sportsbooks.

Still, risks remain. Bitcoin’s price is only about 17% above the average cost basis of bitcoin treasury company Strategy. A break below that level could spook the market, even if Cantor believes the firm is unlikely to sell. Meanwhile, digital asset trusts (DATs) have slowed accumulation as token prices and trust premiums compress.

The coming year may not offer crypto’s next big breakout. But the groundwork for more durable infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption appears to be solidifying even as prices cool.