Gold's six-month rally versus bitcoin shows similarities to the 2019 cycle
The bitcoin-to-gold ratio rebounded from recent lows, mirroring a pattern seen in the 2019-2020.
- Bitcoin is on track for a sixth consecutive red monthly candle against gold, a pattern last seen in 2019/20.
- The bitcoin-to-gold ratio has rebounded to around 16.3 after briefly falling to 15.5 as gold and silver declined more sharply than bitcoin over the past 24 hours.
- A potential bottom in the ratio would not necessarily signal bitcoin strength, but could instead reflect continued underperformance in gold relative to bitcoin
Bitcoin is on track to end January underperforming gold for the sixth straight month as investors ignore the largest cryptocurrency's "digital gold" moniker and seek the safety of a metal that's historically been seen as a haven in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil.
The bitcoin-to-gold ratio, the amount of gold equivalent to 1 BTC, has dropped 23% this month, and is currently standing at 16.3. The six-month pattern closely resembles what happened in 2019, when the sequence began in August and ended in January the following year. Back then, bitcoin outperformed gold for the following five months.
The first signs of a retrenchment may be emerging. The ratio rebounded Friday by 4% after dropping to as low as 15.5 on Thursday. That low coincided with a sharp selloff across global markets, with risk assets declining aggressively.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $82,000, down just over 2% since midnight UTC. By comparison, gold has fallen more than 8% and silver roughly 16%.
From the peak in late 2024, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined by roughly 60%, placing bitcoin in a technical bear market against gold for around 14 months. Even if the ratio has now bottomed, that does not automatically imply a strong upside for bitcoin. It may simply reflect gold continuing to weaken at a faster rate than bitcoin.
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As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
